I wish I could say that things have gotten better. Recently, I finished a two-story series about the ever-changing relationship between Taiwan and China. It is the end product of several months of on-and-off reporting between the two places, a few days of writing and a lot of thinking (see Jan. 6, page 1, and Jan. 13, page 1).

Overall, the process left me with a deflated feeling about Taiwan. After covering the island for four years, and talking to hundreds of people on many levels about the Taiwan-China relationship, there is little doubt in my mind that the island is in for a rough patch. I hope I'm wrong.

As a guy paid to ask questions, I now find the tables have turned. I run into more people these days who ask my opinion about Taiwan's future and few who are optimistic about it. There are so many levels on which the island needs to make competitive changes-ranging from more effective educational reform and increasing political stabilization to implementing direct links with China and fomenting a cosmopolitan chic in its main cities to attract foreign talent. Alone, each task alone is formidable; together, they seem insurmountable, especially with a lack of talent walking the halls of government.

To be fair, some here would argue that each task is already en route to resolution. They would likely be government officials looking to reassure themselves. Make no mistake, in about five years, the island will ante up for its stubborn reluctance (mostly in government) to engage China, as the rest of the world has done. In a place that should seem a natural extension of their domestic market, Taiwanese are considered foreigners.

Already, betting odds are against Taiwan. Even if the island threw open its doors and raced toward economic integration with the mainland, it would only slow, not stop, the process of high-end development in China. But a slice of the pie is better than none. And this kind of action might lead to long-term opportunities, such as more R&D centers in Taiwan.

The Taiwanese work ethic has always impressed me. Yet, it will take more than just hard work to carve a new future in Taiwan. The Chinese are smart and fast; they are developing brands, something the Taiwanese have generally failed at. They won't allow many second chances in this fight.