Happily, the U.S. demand for power isn't likely to load down our generating resources this summer, as just announced by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) in its 2003 assessment. But that good news tells me this may be the year you're really going to need some backup power from an uninterruptible power supply (UPS).

Maybe I think this way because here in the Northeast we've gone through the most exasperating winter in years, the first I've seen preceded by no Indian summer as well as snow on the ground in every month from October to April.

Actual conditions are important, because NERC bases its forecast on "90-10" weather (it assumes anomalous high temperatures 10 percent of the time), and the summer forecast made in mid-May by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is as noncommittal as you'll ever see.

Most of the Weather Service's map area for the continental United States indicates "EC"-equal probability of being above normal, normal or below normal-for temperature, with the entire area EC for precipitation.

Then in one section the weather service discusses the transition between El Nino and La Nina, and the uncertainty in determining how that battle will help or hurt us. Apparently, high technology hasn't added much to the weather service's skill, a case of missing the big picture by trying to see it.

Golf and engineering
Indeed, weather forecasting, like golf and engineering, is about making the fewest number of mistakes in an environment in which there's great uncertainty. And there are more important areas of uncertainty to worry about.

Let's face it: The geopolitical situation today is unstable. In many ways, it's probably worse for countries like the United States, which enjoys relative peace but where instability lurks just below the surface, leaving many of us waiting for the other shoe to drop. But we do our jobs as best we can to keep the environment in check.

The fact is that engineers are basically on hand to deal with worst-case scenarios. So are the owners of small businesses, which we're told are the backbone of this country.

That's why I suggest you buy a UPS now, and for more and more of you, consider purchasing a small gasoline (or alternative-power) generator to back up that UPS. In the economic downturn, it won't cost too much and may save your files and business, which these days can use all the protection they can get.