I had this column all planned. I'd gotten some sneak peeks into what lies ahead in smart phone technology and, judging from what I saw, next-generation silicon will yield some pretty sexy phone-and-PDA combinations. We won't have to choose between sleek form factors and geek features any more, I thought, so the smart phone segment will explode.
I was jazzed. This column will write itself. Even had a headline. Sleek and geek: you can have it all.
But I couldn't write a word.
Why not? I've been waiting for a small, capable all-in-one, and assumed many others were, too. So why couldn't I put my enthusiasm to paper?
Finally, I figured it out. In January, I spoke with Matt Fidian, a California operator of 85 Cingular stores. Now, months later, his words still gnawed at my brain.
Matt said he didn't believe in smart phones. Or phones with built-in cameras. Attractive on the fringe, yes. But he didn't see them driving enough business to affect his average revenue per user.
Wow. No wonder he rained on my column. This guy's not interested in average revenue per user. He eats ARPU for lunch. And he doesn't see it. Basically, he said, people just want to talk on their cell phones. If a carrier were to offer 100 percent coverage with all-landline voice quality, he said, it'd snap up virtually all the business-without ever offering photo or PDA capabilities.
So I called him to see whether, with the benefit of seven months' insight, he had changed his mind.
He hadn't. In fact, he left the road to tell me he hadn't-he was coming to a dead zone on the freeway.
"It just doesn't move the needle much," he said. "Sorry."
There always will be guys who want the latest thing, he said. They'll snap up the new smart phones-and they'll use them during the workweek. "But will you want to carry that phone when you're at the antiques fair with your wife?" he asked.
I'd carry cactus to keep from walking an antiques fair, but that's beside the point. The point is, sleek-and-sexy talk phones are a moving target. They'll get sleeker and sexier, too. So carrying a smart phone will still be a compromise.
Damn. Thought I had a column out of this.
Mike Feibus is principal analyst at TechKnowledge Strategies Inc., a market research firm in Scottsdale, Ariz., that focuses on components for mobile systems. Reach him at mike@techknowledge-group.com.