If you're one of the savvy few who realized back when Internet stocks collapsed in April 2000 that the known broadband world would inevitably crumble, you're closing out 2003 as the fourth year running of hell on earth. Even if you were naive enough to believe in photonic salvation until Cisco burst the final bubble in January 2001, that's still 36 long months of a telecom nuclear winter. And the paths back to reality don't look too entertaining.
Let's take the biggest comms-related story in December: the mad dash for wireless-carrier churn now that phone-number portability is supported. Multimedia nirvana? Multiservice aggregation? Nah, just business and residential customers scrounging for the best bargains to be had.
Is that all there is? Using Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs as a guide, we might say that people aren't going to start looking for value-added services until they have a secure job and feel they are working down their debt loads. Given a jobless recovery and a scary election year ahead, is it any wonder that innovation in communication technology is about as popular as a five-year extended stay in Iraq?
Bryan Rader of MediaWorks Inc. in Atlanta suggested in Broadband Properties magazine that what is needed is a way to shake off the self-imposed negativity in broadband access markets. Rader is looking for carriers, OEMs and suppliers to call a "time-out" to refocus energies, devise new strategies and avoid the self-defeating attitudes that seem to be prevalent everywhere these days.
Coming out of the time-out huddle, however, it may be necessary to aim campaigns at the next generation. Sure, the teenagers loving Napster didn't get very far when the record companies intervened, but what about the legion of gamers who could use broadband links for collaborative gaming experience? Is there someone out there who would still like a richer life experience? It better come from 14-year-olds, because the boomers are tapped out after four years of gloom, and want nothing better in the holiday season than to pinch pennies with the vigor of a Scrooge.
Nevertheless, here's hoping we can all enjoy the year-end time-out and that we return in 2004 with a more imaginative approach than cutting corners, costs and employees during this agonizing recovery.
Loring Wirbel is communications editorial director for EE Times and its network publications.
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