It seems like cruel deja vu. Instead of worrying about SARS this year, I'm scouring Web sites for information about the bird flu that's begun fluttering through Asia, and I'm finding disturbing similarities between the two.
Avian influenza is a deadly, and potentially highly contagious, disease that can jump the barrier between humans and animals. It has already been cited in at least six deaths in Vietnam and two in Thailand. Meanwhile, World Health Organization officials are being stonewalled by the Chinese health authorities, who assert that the bird flu is not a problem in China.
For those who don't remember the early days of SARS, this is exactly how severe acute respiratory syndrome got its start. It ended with several hundred people dead and several thousand infected.
If this latest virus hits China and is not contained, then it will definitely spread further than SARS did, according to Jeffrey Gilbert, a WHO expert on viruses. And it may be too late to stop it: In Hong Kong, the death of a peregrine falcon that patrols the border area has already been traced to the bird flu.
Southern China-especially the exotic, unhygienic animal markets of Guangdong Province-is suspected of being a virus breeding ground and is considered ground zero for SARS. Guangdong is also the home to Shenzhen and Dongguan, electronics-manufacturing hubs.
With SARS still fresh in our minds, it just seems too much to think that there could be another, much worse, specter on the rise. But that is just what the WHO is warning of, especially if countries like China don't honestly assess the danger.
The WHO has put up some good information on its Web site about bird flu, and I suggest anyone traveling to affected areas in Asia give it a read (www.who.int/csr/don/en/). There is some downright unnerving research regarding the big influenza outbreaks of the last century, all of which had roots in Asia and led to the deaths of an estimated 80 million people worldwide.
If there is good news in any of this, it is that bird flu outbreaks in recent years had a relatively low impact. In Hong Kong in 1997, it infected 18 people, of whom six died. Last February, it infected two, killing one person. And prototype vaccines exist for this strain of flu.
China has already seen a few SARS cases in the last two months and has been prompt in containing them. Let's hope this means the authorities are less likely to keep their heads in the sand regarding bird flu.
Taiwan bureau chief Mike Clendenin can be reached at mclenden@cmp.com.