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Rosy stats don't tell all
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Terry CostlowBoth George W. Bush and Al Gore probably agree with Mark Twain, who talked about "lies, damn lies and statistics." Many Americans watching the ever-changing voting statistics in Florida are confused and unhappy to say the least.

Engineers can certainly empathize. All the statistics they see point to this being an ideal time for EEs-high wages, low unemployment and unending increases in benefits and stock options. Yet most engineers know someone who can't find a job, and many who get laid off are nervous about getting rehired. That's especially true for older designers.

There's plenty of anecdotal evidence that engineers over 40 are getting hit the hardest by picky HR managers and by the influx of H-1B immigrants. An article about an IEEE study that said only 10 percent of over-45 IEEE-USA members thought they had been victims of age discrimination was recently posted on the EE Times Web site. Within a couple hours, I got a lengthy note from a 40ish designer in Massachusetts who can't find a job despite having a fresh degree.

This type of thing is puzzling, but it's probably an issue of statistics. It's somewhat doubtful that an unemployed engineering candidate just out of college would be an IEEE-USA member, so he wouldn't be surveyed. Or he could be one of the 10 percent who is a member with a problem. After all, there are a few hundred thousand engineers, so 10 percent of that group is a large number.

There's certainly plenty of evidence that things are going well. Many engineers share at least some of the joy of one respondent to the EE Times "2000 Worldwide Salary & Opinion Survey" (Oct. 30, page 43). Twice he scrawled the comment "I'm fat and happy." Another good sign: The age discrimination figure was less than the IEEE-USA expected, based on nonengineering surveys and e-mails sent to the IEEE.

The statistics that show thousands of unfilled technology jobs in the future might be a bit optimistic, since they're often done by groups that have a particular viewpoint to express. That's a marked contrast to the IEEE-USA survey, where the results were not necessarily what many members wanted to hear.

As with voting totals, the results sometimes aren't what you want. But that is the purpose of doing surveys, to find out if the facts support the anecdotal evidence. Right now, it certainly seems that engineers are in demand. There's plenty that can be done to help the 10 percent who are on the outside looking in.

The economic statistics are likely to change. It's wise for both engineers and hiring managers to do everything possible to make sure that both individuals and the engineering profession fare well if and when an economic slowdown brings cutbacks instead of hiring bonuses.





The views and opinions expressed in this column are strictly those of the author and should not be taken as an editorial position of EE Times or any of its other editors, publications or Web sites.


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