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This snowball is getting big
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Terry CostlowBad economic news has been picking up speed lately like the proverbial snowball rolling down a hill. At the same time, most observers say that the job market for skilled workers continues to be hotter than, well, this being a conservative newspaper, let's say it's hotter than heck.

But when the snowball rolls down to heck, this variation of irresistible force meets immovable object creates a more interesting battle than most. I don't like to do it, but I'm betting that this time the snowball has a pretty good chance in heck.

Unless Alan Greenspan has some magic up his sleeve, it looks like one unusual aspect of the Bill Clinton legacy will be that he entered the presidency at the start of an economic boom and ended it at the beginning of a slowdown. How much that slump will affect the technology world will be a very interesting issue.

Technology companies certainly haven't been immune from the brutal beating that big-time investors have been giving to everyone who believes that stocks are the most lucrative spot for savings, as big-time investment advisors preach. That brings up a key question for engineers and programmers: How's that going to affect my job and my income?

If the slump indeed takes hold, the many engineers who came out of college during the '90s could well find out what it means to get something in their pay envelope besides a bonus. Pink slips are likely to gain popularity, at least with those MBAs who guard the corporate vaults.

Until good economic news warms the hearts of these profit-driven executives, there's a pretty good chance that the record wage increases for engineers will slow down, bringing back the feeling that just having a job is really a pretty good thing.

A recession of any severity will, if nothing else, clarify some of the debates of the past couple of years. Is there age discrimination in this industry? Are H-1Bs necessary? Will smaller companies be more compassionate than major corporations? Can technology keep improving productivity?

Hopefully, I'm just being gloomy during a boring January when I've gained too much up-close knowledge of the term snowpack. I suppose I should be rooting for the heat of the technology-driven economic boom to melt the snowball of bad news. Right now, however, it seems like that snowball will last a heck of a lot longer than any would like.





The views and opinions expressed in this column are strictly those of the author and should not be taken as an editorial position of EE Times or any of its other editors, publications or Web sites.


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