Business was wonderful and profits were lusty. Charlie saw opportunities to make things even better. He would be a hero for, in his mind, he had the killer app. He had a wonderful product idea, and now was the great time to implement it. He had an ample budget and he knew he could get his product to market quickly with the help of a brilliant engineer he had interviewed who was ready to accept a job offer.
Charlie sponsored some focus groups and learned that the product he had in mind and the plan he had for promoting and marketing the product were right on target, albeit with small modifications. His product would serve a large untapped market. Customers would hunger for the product. The only concern was how soon it would be ready.
But Charlie was nervous. He'd been reading several investment newsletters. Each one announced that these were uncertain times, perhaps even perilous times. And though each promised a different glorious recipe for success, each offered, for a modest subscription price, to help Charlie ward off the peril, overcome the uncertainty and, in fact, markedly increase his wealth.
These letters were written by geniuses. Each, it was implied, had recommended the purchase of Microsoft 10 years ago and the sale of Enron before it collapsed. What's more, the advice in the newsletters, however varied and contradictory, would help him avoid sleepless nights.
But they didn't help him make the business and engineering decisions necessary in the face of these uncertain times.
The newsletter pronouncements weren't alone. The uncertain times were heralded in the newspapers he read, the television programs he watched and the radio programs he listened to. All agreed and all were certain on one point: These were uncertain times.
Charlie decided to wait for certain times. He strongly believed that times would change, as they had always changed for as long as he could remember. And indeed, they did.
Without warning, the business climate changed. Business slowed. Wonderful opportunities vanished. His budget was cut; he couldn't hire so readily. He had to write a new budget, a skimpier budget.
Nevertheless, he figured out a way to implement the great plan he'd been harboring. But he waited. Again, he sponsored focus groups. Again he learned that his product would meet with dramatic success.
But once more, newsletters, newspapers, TV and radio programs warned that these were uncertain times. Charlie believed without hesitation that times would change. And once again, they did.
Once more he evaluated the situation. Once more he studied the wisdom of the newsletters, the newspapers, the radio and the TV. And once again, Charlie learned that these were uncertain times.
He made a decision. He decided to wait.
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