I was stumped a couple of weeks ago when asked to come up with a theme that would capture the spirit of 2002 for the upcoming EE Times Salary Survey. What could we say about 2002 that we hadn't already said about 2001?
I couldn't think of a catch phrase that definitively distinguishes this year from last. From chip equipment suppliers to component makers to electronics distributors, every level of the industry is still in limbo until-and unless-business improves. Engineers are designing new chips, but holding off on production until demand picks up. Companies are delaying new hires until absolutely necessary. Certain industry segments continue to post bankruptcies as small companies take the brunt of the poor business conditions.
The reality is, it's hard to focus on anything other than how the industry is waiting for an ever-elusive upturn. It's already April; most of us thought we'd be reaping the benefits of a recovery by now. But we aren't.
Of course, the obvious question is: Will things get better? News stories have appeared recently trumpeting signs, modest though they may be, of economic recovery.
Hiring is beginning to pick up, and chip companies are starting to see stronger demand. Still, there aren't enough solid indicators to qualify this activity as an economic recovery.
So, I tried to think more broadly. What, I wondered, makes 2002 different overall from last year?
Well, the electronics sector isn't the only market niche in trouble; the nation's entire economy remains sluggish. Then there's the ongoing war on terror in Afghanistan, the escalating violence in the Middle East, the continued struggle against terrorism in the United States and the Enron debacle, all of which have shaken the nation's collective psyche. Many parts of the country are suffering through a drought, and even this year's Winter Olympics were tainted by several scandals.
Now that I think about it, with all of that going on around us, the electronics industry's business slump doesn't seem so bad.
So, would my theme then be, "2002-it could be worse?" Let's hope the answer is an emphatic "no."