He was about to commit lots of money and effort to developing the product, but then caution took hold. There was a possibility, however remote, that he might have overlooked some small point that could cut into the product's impact.

Charlie knew that a great deal hung on the correctness of his decision. And he knew that critical parts of his decision might be based on unknowns-though he was certain that he knew all the unknowns.

Charlie knew that, even before they begin designing a new product, many companies conduct focus groups among customers and prospects to learn what they look for in such a product. They probe customer attitudes to learn what biases and preconceived notions customers might have, not only about a new product, but also about the behavior and reputation of the company behind it. They try to learn what promotional and advertising approaches would be most likely to win customer support and enthusiasm.

He had learned that many focus groups had uncovered customer complaints that vendors didn't listen, didn't pay attention, didn't provide the info they needed, and didn't provide the product features they wanted.

All these factors, Charlie knew, could have a major impact on a product's success. And he was aware that many successful executives believed that the modest expenditure for such research could have a mammoth impact on later rewards.

Beyond the preliminary research, Charlie knew, a lot of companies subject a new product to many tests to determine performance under adverse conditions. They often enlist a small number of companies to serve as beta sites. This gives the product developer a chance to modify a design to improve its prospects for success in the real world.

If they bypass some of this research and testing and the product fails, the consequences could be grave. An engineer could lose his job and his reputation, and his company could lose money or even go out of business.

How much simpler and less costly it would be, Charlie mused, if we could design our products the way so many leaders of government design policies that can cost taxpayers billions of dollars and can cost them their health and their very lives.

Instead of wasting money on careful analysis, many government leaders simply depend on the wishes of their wealthiest supporters. After all, who understands issues better than the people who had the wisdom to acquire riches? Who better embodied policy wisdom?

And there was no penalty for failure. If a policy proved disastrous, it was simply necessary to make some pious speeches; to blame the press or the opposition; and to fire an underling.

Charlie finally arrived at a conclusion: Don't let facts or customers stand in the way of bold decisions.