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Most analyst houses see a rebound this year from the past two dreadful ones, but the optimism is tempered as virtually all the crystal-ballers cut back their outlook from double- to single-digit growth. The variances are significant: IC Insights' Bill McLean offers a high-end scenario of 20 percent growth this year over last; 8 percent on the low end.
The biggest question is not when the rebound will occur (it always does and always will), but what will the world look like then? Clearly, it will be a changed landscape. Chief among the questions is what the compound annual growth rate of the semiconductor business will be in this brave new world. Are the days of 17 to 19 percent CAGRs done? Anthony Cataldo posits in one of our regional reports that the days of 10 percent semiconductor CAGRs are upon us. If true, that has enormous implications for the entire electronics food chain.
There are downturns and then there are downturns. In each, it's always darkest before the dawn. But electronic design is forging ahead in the name of Moore's Law to satisfy the demands of an increasingly electronics-hungry public.
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