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Is a recovery in the cards?

FULLER_BRIAN
Brian Fuller
Editor in Chief
The question of the day in the electronics business and the subject of this year's Mid-Year Forecast report: 'Is it in the cards?' The answer is a cautious 'yes,' as cautious as everything is today.

Most analyst houses see a rebound this year from the past two dreadful ones, but the optimism is tempered as virtually all the crystal-ballers cut back their outlook from double- to single-digit growth. The variances are significant: IC Insights' Bill McLean offers a high-end scenario of 20 percent growth this year over last; 8 percent on the low end.

The biggest question is not when the rebound will occur (it always does and always will), but what will the world look like then? Clearly, it will be a changed landscape. Chief among the questions is what the compound annual growth rate of the semiconductor business will be in this brave new world. Are the days of 17 to 19 percent CAGRs done? Anthony Cataldo posits in one of our regional reports that the days of 10 percent semiconductor CAGRs are upon us. If true, that has enormous implications for the entire electronics food chain.

The new landscape also will feature a surging foundry market as the high cost of semiconductor manufacturing forces more and more companies out of the fab business. Mike Clendenin writes from Taipei, Taiwan, that the battle for foundry customers' hearts and minds is engaged. Junko Yoshida reports from Europe that everyone is waiting for the telecommunications sector to re-emerge after the cataclysmic collapse of the past few years. While 3G stutter-steps toward acceptance, the good news for semiconductor companies is that silicon content is rising in handset designs.

There are downturns and then there are downturns. In each, it's always darkest before the dawn. But electronic design is forging ahead in the name of Moore's Law to satisfy the demands of an increasingly electronics-hungry public.

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