In 1959, when TI introduced the first integrated circuit, I predicted that this would be an important package for special applications where size and weight were critical and cost was no object.

When Sharp introduced the first electronic four-function desktop calculator in 1969 for $495 (less than half the price of electromechanicals), then rather quickly cut the price to $395, I made a bold prediction. I wrote that the day would come when we would see four-function calculators selling for as little as $100.

By the 1980s, calculator prices pierced the $10 level and one could no longer buy four-function calculators. Even the cheapest calculator might include features like memory, constant, square root, polarity inversion and solar power. It wasn't long before calculators were too cheap to offer as premium inducements to open a bank account, accept a new credit card, or take a magazine subscription.

In 1970, when Hamilton Watch introduced the first digital watch (designed by Willie Crabtree at Electro/Data), which it hailed as "a new era in the science of measuring time," and which it dubbed a "solid-state portable wrist computer," I was skeptical. I reported that the company had found bugs in only six watches and, in the following paragraph, reported that the company had thus far produced six watches. The watch had too many parts, so it could never work. (It never did.) And at $1,500, I felt, it would never make it in the marketplace. I didn't see much future for digital watches.

A few weeks ago I bought digital watches for three children. Each watch set me back 88 cents.

The predictions I made over the years were by no means far-fetched. Many in the industry shared my views. But I wouldn't dare make such predictions today. The world moves too fast. We have computers, far more powerful than behemoths of just a few years ago, selling for less than $1,000. Who could have imagined? We have powerful computers in our briefcases, or in our pockets. Who could have imagined? We converse in telephones we cup in our hands as we travel from place to place. Who could have imagined? In seconds, we gather information from all over the world. And in seconds we communicate with a friend anyplace or with hundreds of friends every place. Who could have imagined?

So we become jaded. We get to think that anything is possible. All that's needed is for a few bright engineers to decide they'd like to do it. And all they need is some venture money, which is not hard to come by.

So we tend to think that almost anything that's great follows a more-or-less straight line pointing up.

We know the pattern. Some engineers get an idea. If their company won't back it, they gather a few friends. Maybe they hire a few people they think can help. They write a business plan and show it to a few venture capitalists, who put up some money. They develop a prototype. The VCs like it. So they put up more money to get the wonderful new thing into production. Or maybe they do an initial public offering to raise the needed funds. The thing is manufactured (or created, if it's a software thing).

It generates lots of revenue, though not necessarily profit. And our heroes become wealthy beyond any wild dreams of avarice.

That's the pattern. Well, not always. Some spectacular products fail because of one or many unanticipated factors. Sometimes people imagine that obvious difficulties will be overcome, and they're not. Sometimes corporate management shoots down an in-house idea because it looks impractical, or it looks too hard to do, or it likes another idea more, or it feels nobody really needs it. And it becomes a fabulous success. Or a product works, starts generating revenue, even profit, then dies because more advanced technology kills it. It's a very bumpy road.

The Century of the Engineer: Misunderstood Milestones