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BY KEN IIDA
President and Chief Executive Officer,
Fujitsu Microelectronics Inc.,
San Jose, Calif.
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It is important to understand the major trends that are leading us into the next upturn. First is the impact of the Internet, which represents a fundamental shift in the use of technology and the way businesses operate. We are just beginning to understand the long-term benefits of this new medium, and we are starting the construction of the infrastructure and facilities needed to support and maximize its use worldwide.
Even in this current downturn, the building blocks and "delivery" technology for this infrastructure-including network access and wireless applications-are creating new design opportunities in a full range of digital and mixed-signal products, from digital-to-analog converters and interface devices to very sophisticated, high-end network-processing ASICs and associated memory devices.
Despite the downturn, intermediate and long-term growth expectations are strong. We believe the market for IC technology that enables wireless and network access will top $4 billion by 2004 in the United States. The slowdown in wide- and local-area networking systems is temporary. The sector is expected to grow to more than $1 billion worldwide by 2004. Its major market will be the United States, once the economy starts expanding again beginning late this year.
Another market in which electronic innovation continues is the automotive sector. Increasingly, midsize and moderately priced vehicles incorporate more than 40 or even 50 microcontrollers for applications ranging from dashboard control functions to security and emission control. Luxury cars use as many as 70 or 80 MCUs. New standards such as IEEE 1394 are creating opportunities to apply computers and consumer electronics equipment for passengers in vehicles. The resulting set of new designs and applications will drive this market to a $1.5 billion total in the U.S. by 2005, according to industry analysts.
Many of these designs are highly integrated, including sophisticated flash and controller-area network components. Volumes will expand as the economy improves.
Increasingly, design takes place across national borders and time zones, involving a range of companies that provide specific elements and expertise. Often, one organization will complete an IC or system design, then deliver it to a completely different company halfway around the world for assembly and manufacturing, then on to another organization for test. Globalization and specialization will continue to create efficiencies and stability, along with better-quality products.