The Government Electronics & Information Technology Association (GEIA) reported in its latest 10-year DOD spending forecast that the expected spike in overall military procurement could boost spending on electronics by $15 billion over the next decade to $78 billion a year by 2012. Overall military spending could reach $400 billion annually by fiscal 2012, the group said.

Aircraft procurement led by production of the Joint Strike Fighter translates into $35 billion in electronics content by 2012, the industry study found. The Pentagon is expected to announce the winner of the $200 billion fighter contract on Friday (Oct. 26). Analysts said Lockheed Martin Corp. could have the edge over Boeing Co., although both companies said they would subcontract work to the loser. The Pentagon wants to build about 3,000 of the planes.

Expensive transformation

A Pentagon report to Congress on U.S. military strategy included plans to field a long list of new "transformational" technologies for long-range precision strikes, global intelligence gathering and real-time dissemination. Transforming the U.S. military is a "major expense" that remains to be resolved by Pentagon planners, said Tom Davis, senior analyst with Northrop Grumman Corp. and chairman of the GEIA study.

DOD "is searching for agreement on what 'transformation' means," Davis added.

Either way, emerging technologies like unmanned aircraft in the anti-terror war, modeling and simulation to cut training costs and "information superiority" systems are forecast to significantly boost electronics in new and existing weapons over the next decade, the forecast found.

Military R&D will also help spread the integration of electronics in weapons, especially reconnaissance and surveillance systems like the Global Hawk unmanned surveillance aircraft. The long-range craft could be rushed into service over Afghanistan, sources said, with an underground imaging capability that could spot enemy bunkers and weapons caches.

Global Hawk has a range of about 14,000 nautical miles and flew from Edwards Air Force Base, Calif., to an air base in southern Australia in April.

Forecasters predicted a growing "black budget" for classified reconnaissance, surveillance and intelligence programs as funding builds for the war on terrorism. Military planners want better intelligence and the ability to "adapt to surprise," said Davis, a former Army colonel.

The $27 billion R&D budget for 2002 is expected to emphasize special operations. Research spending is forecast to hit $31 billion by 2012, GEIA said.