We're making chips smaller, faster, cheaper and more power-efficient. We know that process technology has hit 130 nanometers and is going smaller and we're developing technology to support all of these changes. But, what's the next driver, and why? I can only speculate, but I believe the next driver is just around the corner, along with an industry upturn.
The first possibility is biotechnology, where electronics and medicine meet. Medical research is in its most exciting time, with electronics enabling biotech firms to accelerate their research and development efforts.
Security could be the next driver. Security as a catchphrase covers a range of safety measures, from personal and community requirements to expanded military and defense needs, and electronics is the foundation of each area.
Telecommunications of some form should drive electronics for years. But the focus may shift to business-oriented communications. Videoconferencing and wireless computing are becoming more widespread, for example.
Digital TVs, DVDs and high-speed wireless communications will become more prevalent. But, will these be the "must-have" purchases that follow the PC and the cell phone?
Automotive electronics is already a large opportunity, with automakers adding an amazing amount of electronics into cars-some new models, have close to 100 chips on board, directing everything from heat distribution to global positioning systems. In fact, the car is but one part of an even larger system with satellites, communications and intelligent roads.
And finally, personal robotics is a market that is starting to emerge. Who wouldn't want a robot to mow the lawn or clean the house?
The problem is identifying which of these markets, or which other market, will become the next major driver for the electronics industry. Until one emerges, we may be stuck in the economic slump for a bit longer.
Meanwhile, the work hasn't stopped. To prepare for the turnaround, the electronics industry is becoming more flexible, innovative and creative. Many of the challenges that system-on-chip designers face today (for example, wiring together predesigned blocks obtained from other companies, inductive loops, signal integrity issues) are challenges printed-circuit board designers encountered-and solved-years ago. Dialog between the two camps is needed. Similarly, analog designers can learn from digital designers.
Much of the dialog on where we are headed and why takes place in papers and at forums like the Design Automation Conference. Next year's DAC, celebrating 40 years of design automation, runs June 2-6 in Anaheim, Calif.