"Embedded Linux is an unstoppable force," said Inder Singh, chairman of the 124-member Embedded Linux Consortium and chief executive officer of LynuxWorks Inc. (San Jose, Calif.). "We are amazed at how many new projects are under way based on embedded Linux." Singh estimated that more than half of his customers have undertaken either formal Linux projects or skunkworks investigations. The activity "has especially picked up over the last six months," he said. "Each quarter, we see more design wins."

A complex set of factors is driving the dramatic success of what started out as a hacker's dream. "Embedded Linux is emerging as the first open multiuser platform standard in the embedded market," said Singh. Previous embedded systems were simply black boxes, designed once and closed to the user. "Now, with the new raft of entertainment-oriented products linked to the Internet, consumers want to download new software, essentially new games or services, and that has opened up the traditional RTOS [real-time OS] to programmability," he said.

Another impetus is the ability not only to download and run software after the program is released, but also to complete applications faster by building on existing software such as stacks and middleware. "Linux's open-platform status makes it easier for vendors of embedded software to develop a product that will be used by many different customers, rather than customizing it for each opportunity," Singh said.

If Linux is fully competitive with any OS on the market, what will happen to such old reliables as Unix and Microsoft Windows? "Those systems simply don't compete in the embedded space; they're too fat and too expensive," said Jeff Dionne, co-founder and CEO of Arcturus Networks. "Even Microsoft doesn't use WinCE or embedded XP in their home networking products. And Unix-as seen in the wording of the recent, and unfortunate, lawsuit against IBM [by Linux and Unix software vendor SCO Group]-is clearly splintering, but it's still focused on the big-server market."

But Steve Balacoo, an analyst with Venture Development Corp. (Natick, Mass.), thinks Microsoft has done a pretty good job in the past few years, homing in on "an embedded strategy that started with the establishment of its embedded-appliance platform group. Now it's looking to provide development tools and OSes at a low-cost entry to developers." Said Balacoo, "It's almost as if Microsoft has taken some lessons from the open-source community."

Earlier this month, LinuxDevices.com surveyed 125 developers online to gauge their reactions to the Embedded Linux Consortium's new spec, ELC Platform Specification (ELCPS) Version 1.0. Many believe the results provide a snapshot of what is to come:

- More than 80 percent of the participants believe ELCPS is "very" or "somewhat" valuable (45 percent and 38 percent, respectively).

- Two-thirds think the existence of the ELCPS standard will accelerate the proliferation of Linux in embedded systems and devices.

- More than three-fifths report that ELCPS compliance or certification would influence their choice of an OS for an embedded project, and nearly two-thirds want the OS they developed for a project to be so certified or ELCPS-compliant.

Linux developers are no longer just small custom-OS houses targeting niche embedded applications. Now major contenders, such as IBM Corp., are involved. "That's why we are investing $1 billion in it," said Mark Brown, a senior technical staff member at IBM's Linux Technology Center (Austin, Texas). "We are looking at the whole spectrum. It's just not Linux on your desktop; it is about Linux used everywhere, from the very low end to the very high end."

Brown views the ELC spec as helping developers enable a broader range of middleware that would be available more cheaply. "We believe this will grow the market," he said.

Although embedded is where the hot growth is now, other areas are expected to make similar moves toward embedded Linux in the future. "There are spaces in particular markets where Linux does not play well currently, such as on the desktop" and in very high-end enterprise markets, Brown said. "I see it being there; it's just not there yet."

In a research survey, Venture Development's Balacoo found a substantial ramp-up for embedded Linux over the past three years. "For 2000, we predicted a very small part of the commercial market, around $28 million," he said. In 2001, that jumped to about $59 million. Balacoo estimates the market growth will hit $130 million this year and $180 million in 2004.

Yet embedded Linux's very advantages may raise serious issues in some application areas. "Because vendors cannot charge royalties for Linux licenses, some other mechanism must be found for a company to make a profit," said Steve Paavola, CTO at Sky Computers (Chelmsford, Mass.).