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8 Views of the Chip Horizon

By   07.06.2015 0

BRUSSELS — Looking down the semiconductor road map, researchers at the Imec research institute see small, medium and large challenges on the horizon. In presentations and interviews at their annual event here, they and some of their partners shared a bit of what’s ahead.

Reducing costs per transistor at the next-generation, the 10nm node, will be tricky. Even more challenging will be getting extreme ultraviolet lithography ready to enable a full 7nm node.

Further out, scaling to and beyond the 5nm node may require a whole new kind of chip technology. Increasingly experts speculate the answer will emerge as some sort of stacking that is not yet on the whiteboard.

The mid-term challenges are currently the most pressing. The 7nm process will be an expensive half node if the long delayed extreme ultraviolet lithography systems are not ready for early production in 2017.

Researchers here are upbeat EUV will arrive in time, but there are plenty of challenges ahead:

  • The light source needs an upgrade to at least 180W, up from today’s best demo of 110W at ASML.
  • The systems need to be available at least 80% of the time, up from an average of about 50-60% today.
  • Systems need to increase throughput from 70-80 wafers per hour to something closer to the 200 w/h of today’s immersion steppers.
  • Resists need to be more sensitive to work at lower doses with less rough edges.
  • New protective wafer covers, called pellicles, may need to be designed to replace the initial pellicle ASML is now supplying its customers for use at the relatively low 80-110W power levels.
  • Improvements are needed in finding and fixing defects.

“We are confident EUV will enter manufacturing most likely starting at the 7nm node,” Luc Van den Hove, chief executive of Imec said at a press conference here.

He should know. The institute has spent as much as $1.3 billion on a state of the art research fab that has been working with EUV systems for years. It currently houses one of about eight of the latest systems installed worldwide.

Nearly all the top chip makers partner with Imec on pre-competitive research on next-generation nodes. This year Toshiba and Sandisk, two of the few holdouts, joined the program.

In a talk here, the head of ASML, the Dutch company developing EUV, gave a few new proof points of progress. One customer achieved for one week an 82% up time for one system, the NXE 3300B. ASML has a program targeting by the end of the year up time of 86% for the volatile light source.

The system is as critical as it is complex and troubled. Trillions of dollars are at stake in continuing the process of scaling to ever smaller chips, said Peter Wennik, chief executive of ASML in a talk here. “It’s a machine with a lot of industrial engineering problems — a whole slew of problems we will resolve one by one,” he said.

Indeed every time ASML ratchets up the power on the light source which is critical to the throughput of the machine, some problem emerges in another module that has to be upgraded or redesigned to keep the machine running. “It’s a process of continuous engineering,” said Kurt Ronse, who heads the lithography program at Imec.

Next page: Without EUV, 7nm is a half node

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rick merritt   2015-07-06 10:32:01

Do you think the cost/gate will decline at 10nm given its need for triple patterning?

Will EUV arrive in time to fend off quintuple patterning at 7nm?

ScottenJ   2015-07-06 12:48:06

Yes it will, Intel and Global Foundries have both said so publically and my own modeling also indicates it will. Multipatterning will drive up wafer costs but the shrinks will more than make up for it.

alex_m1   2015-07-06 14:33:27

@ScottenJ : with EUV at 7nm, what do you estimate would be the price for 7nm vs 28nm ?

ScottenJ   2015-07-06 14:48:00

I have published foundry logic cost versus node projections here: https://www.semiwiki.com/forum/content/4536-moore%92s-law-dead-long-live-moore%92s-law-%96-part-4-a.html

Diogenes53   2015-07-06 16:15:43

Please read the following phrase and choose the correct interpretation:

"Researchers here are upbeat EUV will arrive in time"

1. I think I have heard this before

2. "In time" means 2016-2026

3. "Upbeat" means either naive, wildly optimistic, or one who ignores George Santayana.

4. "Researcher" means someone who does not have to manufacture chips

5. "Here" means Mars or Venus

6. "Arrive" is bereft of meaning

 

rick merritt   2015-07-06 21:38:37

@Diogenes53  Clearly you qualify as one of the skeptics ;-)

RGRU   2015-07-07 08:28:30

The caption on the third page has "3275 wafers/hour" under it.  What is the number it is supposed to be?


Also, could you somehow fix the images at EETimes, so it is possible to view a blown up version.

rick merritt   2015-07-07 11:05:11

@RGRU: I fixed the caption (it was supposed to be 275+ w/h) Thanks for the catch.

My bad on not blowing up the images more. I will be more vigilant about this in the future.

rick merritt   2015-07-07 11:06:41

@ScottenJ: Great article! Thanks for the link.

resistion   2015-07-08 07:15:00

7 nm won't need five masks (quintuple patterning). That was first, brute force estimate, not optimized. Three masks, four maximum (SAQP/LE3). 275 WPH immersion will make it more productive than EUV (<40 WPH).

resistion   2015-07-08 07:46:25

What would "in time" be for EUV? It's not likely to be 2016. Most of the famous 15-tool order will be distributed throughout 2016 and extend into 2017. That would be too late for 7 nm. And that's not even enough tools to make an impact. And there are hardly enough to go around. EUV's time/opportunity has past. Surprised IMEC hasn't owned up to it.

rick merritt   2015-07-08 17:39:56

@resistion Good prespective on multipatterning at 7nm. And indeed I believe EUV was originally targeted for the 45nm node.

alex_m1   2015-07-09 08:23:35

@resistion: Without EUV , do you see 7nm becoming cheaper than 28nm, in a meaningful way  ?

resistion   2015-07-09 11:50:21

It's not cheaper with EUV, because of all the new issues and changes involved. If the density is increased 8x from 28 nm to 7 nm, but the litho process steps are not multiplied 8x, the cost doesn't seem to be litho-driven, but novelty driven (e.g., new materials, modules, etc.).

m00nshine   2015-07-11 08:23:33

Sure, a lot of focus on this page on EUV as if that is the only technical hurdle. Maybe less interesting to the lay person, but technical challenges like new CMP slurries for 10nm and below geometries will be hugely important. Many other challenges out there...

resistion   2015-08-11 08:46:38

You can apply spacer-is-dielectric (SID) patterning twice to quarter the pitch but need only expose once:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Twice_applied_SID.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_patterning#/media/File:Twice_applied_SID.png

resistion   2015-08-11 19:14:21

IMEC has shown they do not understand or wish to understand or wish to help others understand multiple patterning.

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