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Intelís Passenger Economy: Whatís the Point?

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HankWalker
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Home Delivery Not New
HankWalker   6/9/2017 12:45:09 PM
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As a child, there was the "bread man" whose vehicle delivered all manner of baked goods. I saved up some money and overdosed on a large cream puff. There was the "milk man" delivering milk and dairy products. There was a meat truck. The ice cream truck. There was a mobile photo studio to take our photos as we grew up. Etc. And this was in Los Angeles suburbia. Only Schwan's seems to be left as a remnant of that past, unless you count today's food trucks. Of course the article does not discuss the coming battle between drones and ground-based vehicles delivering to the house.

alex_m1
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stock stock stock
alex_m1   6/5/2017 4:09:51 PM
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The point is simple:"Level 4 model – not Level 5, though – is expected to reach the market in 2021. " 

Since this is implied by Intel, this opens a lot of growth potential for Intel/MobileEye in a few years, and this could affect Intel's stock - in a much bigger way than the cost of this report. 

EELoser
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2050 AD? We will all be dead.
EELoser   6/5/2017 12:58:46 PM
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There should be a rule, no writing of reports if the report writer will be dead by the time the predictions are due.

 

realjjj
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...
realjjj   6/5/2017 11:24:33 AM
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As the nutjob that has been mentioning such numbers for a while,  got to say that they are off by l10-15 years and by 2050 car as a service will likely be past its peak.

7 trillion should be close enough but not that heavily towards business. Businesses need efficiency and will be mostly for deliveries not travel. Consumer (that includes commute) will have much higher ASPs per mile.

You start with how low must the price be to capture 100% of a person's needs in a certain market but soon enough the thinking transitions to how to increase ARPU.

If you have 2 billion users at $150 ASP per month, that's already 3.6 trillions per year. By the time you get to 3 billion, ASPs are lower but once you add deliveries you somewhat get to 7 trillion. And don't forget that this includes buses but mostly in rural and developing.

The ARPU in developed markets will matter a lot and we'll see a luxury and marketing escalation as such services try to convince consumers to pay more. Not knowing Japan at all, i can safely say )LOL) that Japan will likely have some of the craziest offerings. If folks want cars with hotubs, that's what folks will get but i wonder how far things might go. Take an 18-wheeler, turn it into a club or a condo and off one goes for some price they can actually afford.

It is replacing car sales, maintenance, the fuel supply chain, insurance and so on - the sum of those is much larger. On top of that it is creating new opportunities and greatly expanding the global miles traveled.

The shift is cost driven, you either pay a lot less or you get a lot more for the same money. It's also more convenient not to deal with maintenance, refueling, parking .. or owning a garage. And more flexibility as you can ride in different types of vehicles, according to one's needs at a given time. Nothing really there to stop consumers from a very fast transition once safety concerns are gone

There are plenty of skeptics but on gut feeling and no arguments.

 

One big problem with this study is that it assumes that we use cars the same way in 2050 while even assuming that the car still exists is risky.

We still need to kick cars out of cities or at least under the city and that is a very different scenario. The car itself is horribly inefficient so radical changes would be preferable.

 

PS: how long before CaaS prices on a per mile basis are lower than subway tickets in the most developed nations? With a note here that taxes are hard to predictt and might be a killer.

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