Market researchers predict a high-end car will contain more than $6,000 worth of electronics in five years, driving a $160 billion automotive electronics market in 2022.
That’s the forecast of Luca De Ambroggi, principal analyst for automotive electronics at IHS Markit, predicting almost all the electronics in a car undergo massive change.
The market for automotive semiconductors will rise more than seven percent through 2022, IHS forecasts. It will outpacing the 4.5% growth of automotive electronic systems in general, and the 2.4% growth in vehicle units over that period, as the sector adds significant software value, said De Ambroggi who will speak on the topic at SEMICON West (July 11-13 in San Francisco).
Auto makers are looking at replacing the standard flat architecture based on a controller area network (CAN) bus with a more advanced network to handle the increase in complexity and data sharing, says De Ambroggi. “All the electronics systems will need to meet stronger safety standards, starting with security,” he notes.
“Artificial intelligence will be the enabler of fully autonomous (Level 5) vehicles that take over the driving, but it will take some years more to meet the requirements for performance, safety and cost, and today´s silicon technology is not yet good enough,” said De Ambroggi.
The automotive market alone is likely not large enough to support the development expense required, so it may require more general-purpose semiconductor components that can be customized for the automotive market.
An in-car AI system will need to go beyond recognizing objects, to using that information to predict behavior. Even chip-level speech recognition, which is relatively mature in automotive infotainment, will need to improve significantly for driver-assistant applications.
“We’ll need to create a standard drivers’ license for the machine, to certify that it is smart enough to drive,” he added.
Beyond radar and cameras, lidar (light detection and ranging) will become a requirement with demand for about 35 million units by 2025. Some 15 different technologies are competing for a piece of this business.
Input from these sensors will need to be linked for accuracy and redundancy. IHS projects the bill of materials for sensor fusion for advanced driver-assistance systems will double in value by 2025. However, the cost for basic surround-view sensor fusion for parking applications will fall to half, as it becomes a commodity.
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