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Why Memory Prices Are Heating Up

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sranje
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Re: High memory price becomes a critical matter to most electroncis
sranje   8/31/2017 2:37:05 PM
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Analysts report that at Samsung server DRAMs "have exceptional demand"

Server DRAMs are also the most profitable DRAM segment and soon ~40% of total Samsung DRAM revenues

I would not under-estimate coming CapEx in DRAMs -- as it always happened before

 

Sang-Yun
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High memory price becomes a critical matter to most electroncis
Sang-Yun   8/31/2017 10:21:51 AM
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High memory price already hit PC, Server, Smartphone, Graphics market segments. Here is summary.

PC DRAM contract price rose by over 10% sequentially Q2, 2017

Graphics DRAM prices increases over 30% in August, 2017

Tight DRAM supplies jar server market – HP plan to raise it server memory price by 20% as a result of the shortage

Sang-Yun
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Re: Could increased fab investment solve tight supply problem?
Sang-Yun   8/31/2017 10:14:50 AM
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Yes, there is some distance between Chinese memory companies and top tier memory companies. Though, if top tier companies are stuck with 2D DRAM and conventional 3D NAND, the gap will narrow down in short time.

ubm112211
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Re: Could increased fab investment solve tight supply problem?
ubm112211   8/31/2017 3:54:44 AM
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top tier still have some cards can play. such as TLC, QLC, DDR4,5,6 .

the chinese vendors might capture the lower end segment.

their r&d competency still far lags.

Sang-Yun
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Re: Could increased fab investment solve tight supply problem?
Sang-Yun   8/31/2017 1:57:57 AM
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Even though it will take time, Chinese memory companies will eventually catch up top tier memory companies if they just stay at 2D DRAM and conventional 3D NAND.

ubm112211
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Re: Could increased fab investment solve tight supply problem?
ubm112211   8/31/2017 1:48:19 AM
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this means the 3 chinese memory fabs will all succeed. long term return guarenteed. investers won't back out in the middle.

Sang-Yun
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Could increased fab investment solve tight supply problem?
Sang-Yun   8/30/2017 3:43:18 PM
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At this time, the situation of limited memory supply is fundamentally different from previous cases. Even though memory vendors increase output along with more fab investment, the imbalance between supply and demand will be unable to be solved because there is no more Moore's Law which increases # of bit cells EXPONENTIALLY. Without Moore's Law, fab investment just increases output LINEARLY as shown in Fig. 3.

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