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7 Predictions for the Cloud in 2018

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emesdoublee
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Manager
Eyal will continue to be an egotistical narcissist
emesdoublee   12/26/2017 1:04:16 PM
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Last year I predicted that Mellanox would get bought. Because it's just a bite sized little mouthful in a rapidly consolidating semiconductor industry of large players. This prediction would have come true if Eyal was not such an egotistical narcissist. He was approached by Marvell but refused to even talk? That's really lame and I'd be pissed off if I owned the stock.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/11/24/starboard_value_strikes_at_mellanox/

"In the past, Marvell has expressed an interest in discussing with the Issuer [Mellanox] a potential strategic transaction on a negotiated friendly basis. The Issuer has declined to enter into any such discussions."

Now he has a > 10% activist investor all over him like stink on smellysubstance. Starboard looks to be aggressive and successful. They got Yahoo sold to Verizon and Marissa Meyer got canned. They got the Marvell founders canned too. Pretty strong record.

Here is my psychological analysis of this. Eyal sees himself the equal to any and all semiconductor companies in the world. Actually better than the best. The best semiconductor company in the world. The superstars of the semi industry holding up the flag of the greatest Israeli semiconductor company ever known to man.

When in fact, Mellanox is just a a little ankle biter in the scheme of things. Are you still in that old smelly sewer on Oakmead Pkwy with the horribly stained carpets? I think that even Eyal may be waking up to his fate though.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-monday-once-you-become-big-the-environment-can-turn-hostile-mellanox-ceo-for-monday/

So here is my 2018 predictions. Starboard will win and Mellanox will get acquired either nicely or in a hostile manner. Eyal will ride off into the wakesurfing sunset with his massive package.

Broadcom will conitnue to be the dominant number one player in Ethernet merchant silicon. They have the true 400G products coming to market with 56G PAM4 serdes. That's Tomahawk 3 and Jericho 2 and more. Get ready for initial testing of the 400G ethernet this year and rollout in 2019.

Oh, and I think that selling both the merchant switch silicon and the full whitebox switch solution is the stupidest marketing move and CEO decision ever known to man.

alex_m1
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Author
Re: Cloud will still be ahead
alex_m1   12/25/2017 3:14:48 PM
Sure, i agree with you, if nunatix could also solve the software layer problem, cheaply, that would be very valuable.  But there's a difference between offering commodity software vs leading-edge software(tahts sometimes comes with specialized hardware and datasets). From what i gather nunatix is somewhere in the middle of that scale.  That leads to asking: 1. Will a large share of organizations be willing to settle , get just "good enough" software, in the name of cost savings, even thought better software, beyond a cost advantage, usually gives you a strategic advantage ? 2. Will nunatix, as it grows, find a way to create an effective software ecosystem on it's platform ? Because this could really help with question #1.  What do you think about those questions ?  

storageseer
User Rank
Freelancer
Re: Cloud will still be ahead
storageseer   12/23/2017 9:34:54 PM
Great comment and totally agree! Even if "private clouds" (aka enterprise IT managers) can get close on CAPEX the real challenge is the massive operational expenses of application development. So you've asked precisely the right question - how can enterprises achieve OPEX savings withtheiir applications !?! Can HCI make it cheaper for enterprises to deliver the needed services (some of which are new) on on-prem infrastructure than it would be to develop and host these services on the public cloud. A focuse on simple, efficient, and improved opex for application & services rather than  infrastructure CAPEX is the key. The Nutanix team is really smart and see this. This is why you see them pivoting away from hardware & infrfastructure and to software & services.

alex_m1
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Author
Cloud will still be ahead
alex_m1   12/23/2017 3:15:19 PM
Kevin, your article focused on "infrastructure as a service" becoming a commodity im sure Amazon knew that would happen. But the bigger value proposition, today, is a rich array of services, both by cloud companies and their ecosystem. And until software providers won't see a unified, and large market in the private cloud, the cloud will maintain dominate and will probably grow in share.

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