SAN JOSE, Calif. – The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has raised its IC forecast.
The SIA projects record sales of $300.5 billion in 2010, an increase of 32.8 percent over 2009. The forecast calls for sales to grow by 6.0 percent in 2011, to $318.7 billion, followed by an increase of 3.4 percent to $329.7 billion in 2012.
The projected compound annual growth rate is estimated to be 13.4 percent for the period 2009 through 2012.
“We experienced record sales this year due to strong global demand across a broad range of end markets,” said SIA President Brian Toohey in a statement. “We expect more moderate growth through 2012 as the economy recovers and consumer confidence restores,” Toohey concluded.
Last year at its annual event, the industry organization said sales for 2010 would improve by 10.2 percent, to $242.1 billion, followed in 2011 by a smaller growth spurt of 8.4 percent, to $262.3 billion.
Then, in June, the SIA released an updated industry forecast that projected worldwide chip sales would grow by 28.4 percent to $290.5 billion in 2010. The forecast projected 6.3 percent growth in 2011 to $308.7 billion, followed by 2.9 percent growth in 2012 to $317.8 billion.
One firm, IC Insights Inc., disagrees with SIA's forecast.
Market research firm Gartner Inc. has not raised its IC forecast in 2011, which calls for modest single-digit growth. In September, Gartner (Stamford, Conn.) was predicting 4.6 percent growth in 2011. The research firm did not change its IC forecast for 2010, which calls 31.5 percent growth. The IC market is projected to grow 1.8 percent in 2012, 6.5 percent in 2013 and 6 percent in 2014.
VLSI Research Inc. recently lowered its chip forecast for 2010, but raised it for 2011.In the new forecast from VLSI, the research firm projects that the IC market will jump by 32 percent in 2010 and will grow by 8 percent in 2011. In the previous forecast, the firm projected that the IC market would grow 33.7 percent in 2010 and 6.6 percent in 2011.
Its semiconductor equipment forecast remains constant. The fab tool market is projected to grow 103 percent in 2010 and 10.6 percent in 2011, according to the firm.
Semiconductor industry revenue is projected to grow 5.1 percent in 2011, according to market research firm iSuppli Corp. in a recent report, which predicts the industry will enjoy a "soft landing" with modest growth after a booming 2010.
Chip sales are projected to grow to $317.4 billion next year from a projected $302 billion this year, according to iSuppli's forecast. The firm is currently projecting that 2010 chip sales will be up 32 percent compared to 2009, when the downturn caused the chip market to contract.
One firm is more bullish than others. In an e-mail newsletter, Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research, said: ''Our own opinion is that 2011 will be an above average growth year, rising 9.5 percent over 2010. Considering an average growth year for the semiconductor industry is 8 percent growth, 9.5 percent is pretty good.''
Semico's forecast is based on its so-called IPI or Inflection Point Indicator. Extrapolating the IPI out to 2014, Semico sees that 2010 is up, 2011 is up, 2012 is up with the second half declining, 2013 is down, 2014 is up.
''This current growth will continue into 2012. ''The future for the next few years is bright for the semiconductor industry,'' Feldhan added.