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TIís Shrewd Robo-Car Strategy

6/12/2017 01:01 PM EDT
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EELoser
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Freelancer
Re: L2/L3 car market for how long and how big?
EELoser   6/13/2017 2:19:34 PM
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Laughable.

They can't even design an ignition switch or airbag without killing people.

Wait till this stuff gets out in huge volume, then the problems will show up and the manufacturers will get sued like Takata and GM.

 

realjjj
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CEO
Re: L2/L3 car market for how long and how big?
realjjj   6/12/2017 6:57:56 PM
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I know there is a lot of concern about how fast people will accept driverless cars but spend a few days on Youtube watching Tesla videos and you'll realize how easy it will be. Convenience always wins, if the average Joe can TXT or apply makeup while driving, there is no debate. Studies on the matter are highly flawed as you ask the average person to imagine an extraordinary situation and answer quickly with minimal info.

On legislation, the Trump administration might get rid of any regulations, so that's a plus (LOL) but , at the end of the day, the economic and social benefits are too large to ignore. Crashes can lead to complication and any delays they might cause are hard to predict.

Including something that reminded me of conversations here on regulators. http://ns.umich.edu/new/releases/24866-new-way-to-test-self-driving-cars-could-cut-99-9-percent-of-validation-costs

On Intel's study i still think that they are off by 15-20 years and i highly doubt that cars will exist by 2050. Would be truly sad if they do as they are so inefficient.- 2000kg of metal to transport 100kg of water. This is a longer conversation but by that time robots will be smarter than humans and we still can't do better than cars?

What i don't get, at all, is what arguments do people have when they claim ownership will survive. or even dominate. You bring up legal and acceptance as issues but those relate to autonomy not the business model. if we accept that L4/L5 is here and legal between 2020-2025, what stops the shift in business model. I can't come up with any scenario that keeps ownership alive, aside from the one I mention in the previous comment.

If the 2020-2025 timing seems too aggressive, in 10-15 years our glasses need to be smarter than these cars- they need to understand what the user is looking at and a context aware UI is a must. This is automation not AI, it's the easy part (LOL). From a certain point progress is exponential and i think folks have figured out what is needed for autonomy and now they can focus on efficiency. Data collection is getting there too as the number of cars able to collect such data increases rapidly.

junko.yoshida
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L2/L3 car market for how long and how big?
junko.yoshida   6/12/2017 5:37:05 PM
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Speaking of mobility as a service enabled by autonomous cars, it's interesting that you say:  "Going from here to over 50% of the market is a blink of an eye once the necessary legislation arrives."

Big if, however, still hangs in the balance of legislations (how long will it take?) and people's acceptance of robo-cars, in my humble opinion.

I also found it interesting, when Intel and Strategy Analytics put together Passenger economy report recently, they chose the year 2050 as a base year for Passenger Economy predictions.

While I am not knocking autonomous cars, I think there is a lot more than we care to admit that we don't know about which way and how fast this market is moving.

 

alex_m1
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maybe
alex_m1   6/12/2017 4:11:19 PM
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They seem to have a shrewd approach, but than reading this quote:

>> For the next couple of decades, cars will largely be sold to individual buyers 

Gives the impression that they are unrealistic, in the name of protecting the business(how much of TI's biz depends on private cars? ) .

Heck, realistically, even without L4/L5 , we'll probably see on-demand shared transportation(like ford chariot's shuttles), replacing a lot of private cars, pretty soon. And electric vehicles, with the much higher lifetime would be an issue too. 

 

 

realjjj
User Rank
CEO
...
realjjj   6/12/2017 3:31:41 PM
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Magney said, "I think L2/L3 is going to be a hot market for a long time." Despite high hopes for the emergence of Mobility as a service applications, he cautioned, "For the next couple of decades, cars will largely be sold to individual buyers like they have been."

 

The only way ownership works is if the hardware becomes much cheaper than current cars. The issue is that the said hardware has to be electric and autonomous since that's the only way to achieve much lower op costs. Could one make an electric autonomous Corolla and sell it at 8k$? Even if one could do that, a service can provide more comfort (slightly nicer car for the same price due to higher efficiencies), more convenience (no need for a parking spot, maintenance and so on) plus a faster cadence for new and improved hardware (every 2 years not 5-10 years). Guess a collapse in electricity prices could help ownership to some extent but it would have to be a very large one.

L2/L3 would become low end very quickly as it lacks in comfort and convenience vs L4/L5 but low end is addressing the more cost sensitive customers so those that will migrate to CaaS very fast if possible- basically just low end rural remains as a market for L2/L3 in the long run.

You could also look at it another way, leasing could be considered a service and that's already some 25% of the market in the US and over 30% when it comes to just retail. Public transport and taxis are services too so all added up, services are already holding a substantial share. Going from here to over 50% of the market is a blink of an eye once the necessary legislation arrives.

Smartphone sales in 2008 were some 140 million units and some folks still expected the PC market to reach 500 million units by 2015. Look where those markets are today, with smartphones outselling PCs 6 to 1. Disruption is never slow once the cat is out of the bag and we should never forget that.

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