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NAND Clash Spans Chip to Code

Terabit chips will pack four bits/cell
8/14/2017 00:41 AM EDT
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realjjj
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Re: ....
realjjj   8/14/2017 5:46:24 PM
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That's the wrong math for a couple of reasons but the main reason is that you assume that SSDs will be a constant % of the NAND supply.

In practice, SSDs bit growth will be much higher than 40% per year as penetration rates are low in PC, consumer cold storage, CE and server. At the same time, mobile demand will slow down as phones are starting to reach sufficient storage.

If we assume bit output at 140EB this year and mobile at 40% of that, we cross 1000 EB in 2023. Mobile maybe grows from 56EB (the 40%) to 2-4 times that. That leaves 800 EB or more for all else.

And it's important to remember that IF those bits are produced, they must be sold so prices got to be low enough. I am not sure 40% CAGR can be sustained for that long but i do hope that new NVMs will offset any slowdown in bit growth.

Edit: I am not saying that HDDs will reach 0 EB in 2023, just that HDD EB shipped will peak well before that. The key segment for HDDs is nearline but that's just part of enterprise so well bellow 200EB in 2016.

Doug_S
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Re: ....
Doug_S   8/14/2017 5:26:46 PM
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The most recent info I could dig up showed 12 EB of SSDs in Q2 2016. Let's call that 50-55 EB last year. Yes, there's more flash being made but you're talking hard drive replacement so you only want to count SSD flash.

Starting with 55 EB last year, seven years of growth at 40% CAGR gets you to 580 EB. Since storage needs always have and will continue to increase meaning you can't simply target the 600 EB we use today and call it good, you probably need to reach 1000 EB so looks like about nine years or 2026 before SSDs are able to completely replace hard drives.

realjjj
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....
realjjj   8/14/2017 2:51:36 AM
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HDDs are really close to irrelevance.

The best way to look at it is NAND bit output. If the industry can sustain a 40% CAGR for a few more years, that's gonna be a lot of bits in 4-5 years from now and that doesn't even factor in China entering the market. If they make those bits, they got to sell them somehow so prices will decline as much as needed. By that time, new NVMs should reach significant volumes too.

HDDs shipped a bit over 600EB last year with more than a third being in enterprise. Not sure where NAND is but I suspect above 140EB this year and at 40% CAGR it will squeeze HDDs out in not too many years.

resistion
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Resorting to string stacking
resistion   8/14/2017 12:59:50 AM
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So you there you have it, Toshiba is already being forced to stack NAND vertical channel strings. No wonder it is being offloaded without much thought.

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