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NAND Market Expected to Regain Balance in 2018

10/3/2017 00:01 AM EDT
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Doug_S   10/3/2017 3:12:35 AM
iPhone X production will probably be limited throughout the year - reportedly production of the new sensors for 3D face scanning is the real constraint not the OLED displays as first assumed by some.

They may not be able to make enough X's over the next 11 months to have a major impact on the flash market, if the rumor that they will only be producing about 3 million a month is true. Instead they'll be concentrating on executing what was likely their plan A for this year they couldn't make happen, and introduce the technology in the X to their whole product line, in regular and plus sizes at full production volume.

That will be the 'iPhone upgrade supercycle' Wall Street has been waiting for, but it sounds like the NAND market may have enough slack capacity by then.

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realjjj   10/3/2017 1:39:09 AM
Micron said last week that they expect bit growth for the industry at around 50% with demand the usual low 40s.

I would add that Q1 is likely boosted by iPhone X and demand would outstrip supply. Analysts and likely even Apple are underestimating demand there. Given the profile of an Apple customer, for the vast majority there is no reason to buy anything but the X and waiting 1-2 more years won't be an option as this is the first design refresh since 2014. American soccer moms (and other adults that think alike) might buy on brand without caring at all what they buy but all other Apple buyers will jump on the X. With 64GB and 256GB versions, that's gonna be quite a lot of NAND- maybe towards 8 EB just the X in Q1, assuming Q4 production is limited.

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