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China Forecast to Miss Chip Targets

Veteran analyst still sees good growth ahead
1/26/2018 00:01 AM EST
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luting
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One way to reach this goal
luting   1/29/2018 5:18:03 PM
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China will reach this goal if it manages to conquerque Taiwan :-)

photoelectron
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photoelectron   1/26/2018 6:12:50 PM
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"Maybe I'm too skeptical. Some say China will do what it did in steel and other industries, but chips are not the same thing — 18nm DRAM technology is not easy to master"

It is very dangerous to underestimate China which today is a world leader in scientific research. 18nm DRAM might just be another interesting challenge for them.

"Of the top six IC makers in China, only two are Chinese companies"

This is exactly what China wants to change.

"Qualcomm is excited to have fabs as a new toy to play with, so I think they will keep or expand them. It will shake up the whole fabless/IDM thing"

The US semi business overestimates short term profit and underestimates long term value. The fundamental value of the semi business is fab which is very un-toy like. The real science and engineering occurs in the fab. If the US does not have fabs its engineers will be useless. Historically, Intel owned the x86 business because none of the multitude of their competitors who tried to get a piece of Intel's x86 business could beat the performance/cost of their fab. 

realjjj
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realjjj   1/26/2018 2:32:36 AM
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I'll assume that "IC production" excludes fabless folks so it's a bit misleading to compare it to the total IC revenue or China's IC needs. Unless it is China's IC revenue but then, the current total seems very low.

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