REGISTER | LOGIN
Breaking News
Comments
Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View
pmcw
User Rank
Author
re: Chip sector downgrade 'baseless,' says analyst
pmcw   12/1/2009 3:35:08 AM
NO RATINGS
Nick, You are precisely right; I share your opinion when it comes to most Wall Street analysts. Before selling my company I was in the semiconductor industry for a quarter century. Regards, Paul McWilliams nextinning.com

pmcw
User Rank
Author
re: Chip sector downgrade 'baseless,' says analyst
pmcw   11/20/2009 2:37:26 AM
NO RATINGS
Dylan, I appreciate you quoting me today. With the Dell data now in hand I've made some projections for the State of Tech company set I cover. Together, these companies will produce roughly $650B in revenue this year. My projection for total revenue in the set is 36.4 days, down from 37.8 last quarter, down from 41.2 in Q3 2008 and down from 41.9 in Q3 2007. Q3 2007 is a nice basis here since demand fell off quite sharply starting mid-September 2008. In the semi sector where I track the companies representing about 45% of what the SIA reports as worldwide revenue, days sales in Q3 69.5, down from 75.1 last quarter, down from 81.0 in Q3 2008 and down from 79.3 in Q3 2007. What's interesting here is that there has been a concerted effort during the last year to move towards consignment arrangements (hubbing). This has effectively moved inventory allocations in the semi sector back through the chain to semiconductor companies. While this will prove to be a good move and remove some of the volatility from the system, right now there are a number of part types in short supply due to bottlenecks in package and test. I've not heard reports of terrible, but present to some varying degree. I'm always looking for inventory bubbles and the only one I see now is in LCD drivers (slowing demand in some package and test houses). DRAM prices appear to be softening for December, but no reports of excessive inventory yet. Regards, Paul nextinning.com



Like Us on Facebook
EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
Martin Rowe

Test Tool Finds Ethernet Wiring Errors
Martin Rowe
Post a comment
When my house was renovated several years ago, I had the electrician install network outlets in numerous places, then run the LAN cables to a wiring closet. But he didn't document the ends ...

Martin Rowe

Local Electronics Store Supplies Engineers and Hobbyists
Martin Rowe
5 comments
Rochester, N.Y. — Tucked away in this western New York city known for its optics is Goldcrest Electronics, a local store that's supplied businesses and individuals with electronic ...

Martin Rowe

How to Transform a Technology University (Book Review)
Martin Rowe
1 Comment
The Presiding Genius of the Place by Alison Chisolm. WPI, Worcester, Mass., 234 pp., 2016. Engineers love to discuss, and often criticize, engineering education. They often claim ...

Max Maxfield

Aloha from EEWeb
Max Maxfield
Post a comment
Just a few minutes ago as I pen these words, I posted this blog about this month's Cartoon Punchline Competition over on EEWeb.com.