Stop trying to spook the Windows fanbois. Theyíll go crazy about hearing that the Windows desktop world is about to take a major hit. Some people seem think the only way to get any work done is with a Windows PC. Howís that for being brainwashed by the Bill Gates era? Donít get me wrong. I think that Windows desktops are still useful. Iím only saying that not everyone in the world needs one sitting on their desk to complete tasks. Most employees could easily go back to non-Windows desktop terminals and not even notice the difference and eliminate tens of thousands of Windows licenses in the process.
Could the fact that Sandy Bridge will arrive late 2010 to early 2011 impact current orders ? This is a major product transition for Intel that combines GPU and memory controller along with the CPU at 32nm.
A lot depends on how narrowly you define the PC market. My smartphone is a portable PC that communicates on cellular networks. Tablets are pretty much the same thing but bigger and may not have cell comms. I have a couple of PC boxes in my house that are really set-top boxes, and if my Ceton card ever gets here then they will suck all the the functionality of the cable company STBs into them.
Even "traditional" PC boxes are changing. SSD's are already 2X the speed of spinning-disk drives, and PCIe interfaces multiply that by another 4X. I am holding off replacing my old laptop until I can get something with an SSD boot drive and a terabyte or so data drive.
This is going to be an interesting year...
Wait a minute. We are just getting over a bad recession and we expect the supply and demand for the PC market to remain the same. I hope this is a joke! I have to buy a lot of PCs this holiday season for my teenage family members that are now growing up. From my point of view, I think the PC market is during just fine. Based on my resources, I don't see a slowdown at all.
Slowdown, what slowdown? This is the first time in the almost 4 and a half years I've been at a semiconductor company that I've seen foundries at capacity. The fab cycle has lengthened from 6 weeks to 8 or 9 weeks. There's no slowdown where I work (Broadcom).
Unfortunately, I do not put a lot of emphasis on these analysts. They rarely get anything right. From mortgage to PC market, forget them. This is not science and it remains a guess work. Analyst depend on numbers which in most cases are not even reliable. However, it makes sense as the recession seems to be coming back.
@RogerMe- the size of the estimate cut made me do a double take at first, too, but, hey, that's $300 million. It seems like chump change in the scheme of Intel's run rate, but that is some serious money.
@CarlMuck- you make a good point that the scope of the investigation done by the analyst is limited to Taiwan and he makes no claim otherwise. I don't know that the PC building industry in any other geography is large enough to offset declining orders in Taiwan, though.