You can see my assumptions, clearly I was going for ball park, looks I was not too far off. $20 billion is still around 3 fabs (or not even, there is an 8.9 billion price tag reported by Toshiba), so I doubt it would help to have everyone rush at once.
Hi NAND_analyst! Send me your forecast on NAND. I will edit and post it. I will post other forecasts from analysts as well. I ALWAYS welcome different points of view. (It just so happen I ran into Jim at ISSCC. He had the guts to make a forecast-AND CALL A DOWNTURN.) Just send your forecasts to the following address: email@example.com
Hi NAND_analyst! Send me your forecast on NAND. I will edit and post it. I will post other forecasts from analysts as well. I always welcome different points of view. (It just so happen I ran into Jim at ISSCC.) Just send your forecast to: firstname.lastname@example.org
Another missing point in this article is the "tipping point." Currently, SSDs are being adopted incrementally, in more of an evolutionary transition. They will continue to slowly grow in popularity and adoption until the market "collapses" and prices dive for the ground. That's the tipping point.
From then on, the transition from HDDs to SSDs will leap into revolutionary speed. The entire equation of supply / demand and growth capacity will change at that point and every bit of current research data on the industry will be rendered obsolete.
A market of $14b, and big enough for only 2 fabs, huh? Funny, there was close to $20b of revenue for NAND vendors in 2010, and that doesn't include controllers, which are key for NAND.
It is hard to take your post seriously.
Even if it does affect downward pressure on the price, NAND will still make money by selling in greater quantities. The demise of NAND flash will more likely be that it is made obsolete by memristors or some other superior technology, meaning it will be profitable for some time to come.
In a discussion I had with Jim Handy he mentioned a 60% decline. The 40% number was likely a misquote.
Jim does his homework and I would take his word on this. The forecast is definitely in line with past price collapses for NAND Flash.