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Cowan LRA Model
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re: Foundry sales tumbled in December
Cowan LRA Model   1/10/2012 3:31:16 PM
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Hi Dylan - these December 2011 monthly sales results for both TSMC and UMC do not bode well for global semi sales reaching greater than the $300 billion mark that the industry was supposedly going to surpass for the first time. The latest run of the Cowan LRA Model's monthly sales forecast expectation for 2011 global sales (based on the recently posted WSTS's November HBR) came in at just marginally over $300 billion, namely $301.2 billion corresponding to a sales growth estimate of 0.95 percent for 2011 over 2010's sales of $298.3 billion. In order to surpass the $300 billion sales barrier, December 2011's will have to be greater than $26.2 billion. December's actual sales number should be posted by the WSTS on February 3rd, 2012 -- stayed tuned for the "wrap up" of 2011's global semi sales result and thus finding out if the $300 billion sales mark record for the industry is attained. Mike C.

Peter Clarke
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re: Foundry sales tumbled in December
Peter Clarke   1/10/2012 3:47:33 PM
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@Mike I agree. With TSMC's Dec sales falling more than 12 percent sequentially - versus a 6 percent fall in a more typical year - the market looks weak. On the plus side TSMC's sales were toward the top end of guidance previously given. And check out Dialog's runaway sales.

DMac
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re: Foundry sales tumbled in December
DMac   1/10/2012 5:31:37 PM
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Thanks Mike. I guess we'll have to wait and see what the numbers show, but I also agree that the y-to-y declines in sales by the foundries do not bode well for the overall market.



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