Exit X86-Windows 8 Prison Blues - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kqio-PxEjHc
The market for x86 based consumer client computers is watched intently by my Wall Street colleagues. The key indicator currently is Windows 8. If this new Microsoft facelift does not spark a popular revolution in consumer client then X86 will spend its last days in the IT closet hospice. X86 is known to our inner circles as X-cessive Energy and will equilibrate amongst the fixed platform gamer and enthusiast crowds and those TAMs are not exiting from a growth opportunity perspective.
The financial barrier to innovate around Windows 8 is an order of magnitude greater than ARM. Not to mention CISC power requirements. I know all the arguments about current ARM not being able to handle the popular client workloads. Those popular workloads are being abandoned and Windows 8 may serve as the prime motivator to help accelerate that exodus....as in goodbye Redmond.
Windows 8 is what we’re watching because it could help the soften X86 consumer client decline...bets are already placed.
Guaranteed, we're not going to let our money sit on energy obese tech in light of the cloud...no matter how many gamers overclock and buy multiple displays....those numbers don't work.
I'm not so sure any of these electronic interconnects will be long lived, particularly in HPC. Without much fanfair, IBM, Intel, and several university groups have been making great strides in silicon photonic devices. An on-chip or integrated chip-to-chip optical interconnect would almost instantly render all of them obsolete both in performance and power consumption.
Sylvie Barak posted her own good IDF preview that notes on of the big things at IDF next week will be more details on Intel's first 22nm chips, the Haswell generation. There will be a lot of mobile news next week.
See Sylvie's story at
I have a story for Monday morning on Intel's plans on interconnect that will be announced at IDF so stay tuned
There will also be a story Tuesday morning on AMD's plans
For Kandou Bus: I'm waiting for a leak!
There are a lot of interesting things shaping up in the server world. There is the ARM vs. x86 battle that is brewing (battle is an overstatement and a lot of folks are jumping the gun but it is surely going to come to a head in the next 5 years). Then there is the other factors like more efficient integration, interconnect like the appliedmicro folks. calxeda and seamicro are touting the scale-out fabric.
This space is definitely seeing a remorphing and fundamental assumptions that have stood the test of time for decades are being challenged. This leaves room for new players to get a toe hold in.
@przemek: excellent points! When 'computing' has moved away from non-x86 platforms to thin clients and mobile devices, Intel should have taken a radically different approach centered on energy efficiency.
The article appears to be a mishmash of what is coming up at IDF than a focused one on mobile clients. It is not clear from the article what Intel is planning to innovate in high speed serials links (Infiniband) for cluster computing (an area that it seems to have attacked halfhearted in the past).
The title mentions mobile clients, but the article talks about high-speed interconnect, which is mostly irrelevant to this segment. If Intel wants to regain lost ground in client space, they need to get serious about inexpensive and energy efficient processing---almost all Intel chips require heatsinks and fans, while almost no ARM chips have one.
Another thing Intel needs to do is SoC systems aka microcontrollers. There's a plethora of ARM microcontrollers with integrated peripherals for communication (USB/ethernet/serial) and control (analog and digital)---but nothing I can think of from Intel.