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realjjj
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CEO
Re: Nonsense
realjjj   5/18/2017 12:05:17 PM
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"First, Intel's memory group [NSG] has announced $866 million in revenue in Q1 2017, which is 55% more than $577 million in Q1 2016."


Pay attention and do the math. Look at how bit output grows for the industry , account for the fact that Micron and Intel are above that average this cycle ( they were bellow average in the previous cycle) and then account for NAND pricing.

Intel's CAPEX for NAND is due to them taking some production outside the JV not because there is a so called ramp. This bit is interesting, if the press would ask why but the press falls for the official nonsense because the press is a marketing vehicle nowadays. Look at clean room area for 2D vs 3D NAND, terms of the JV, Intel's (idle) fab capacity and maybe you find an answer.

MIcron NV revenue (approx in millions) in the last 4 reported quarters 1400,  1270, 1000 , 900.

Vs Intel's 866, 816, 649, 554.

Revenue is a factor of volume, price and mix ofc but even when ignoring mix, see how both scale by a bit over 55%? It's the process transition (in this case 2D to 3D) and NAND pricing, no evidence of any ramp on top of it, at all.

Kuckoo
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Author
Re: Nonsense
Kuckoo   5/18/2017 10:52:46 AM
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The main purpose of this article was to get more clarity on Intel's memory business. And it presents facts, not just opinion. 

First, Intel's memory group [NSG] has announced $866 million in revenue in Q1 2017, which is 55% more than $577 million in Q1 2016. 

Second, Intel is raising its capex both on flash and 3D Xpoint memory technologies. It's also a fact, widely reported in trade media.

Third, Intel and Micron are years ahead with 3D Xpoint as a flash replacement, compared to Samsung, Hynix and Toshiba. The article notes, however, that things aren't very clear on where 3D Xpoint stands in terms of readiness. We will most likely know later this year.

 

realjjj
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CEO
Nonsense
realjjj   5/18/2017 5:21:12 AM
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Look at Intel's NAND revenue, assume that global NAND bit output grows by some 40% per year, assume that Micron and Intel are a bit above that this cycle and then factor in how NAND prices have evolved over the last few quarters. Now show us any evidence at all of anything unusual and a so called ramp. It's a white lie for investors since Intel now has a reporting segement for NVM. Going forward, Xpoint will mask the pseudo-ramp for NAND so folks will keep thinking it's there - standard operating procedure for corporations like Intel.

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