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ubm112211
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Re: Short victory
ubm112211   11/24/2017 12:20:58 AM
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yep, this is a hot topic with some attentions. everyone is paying more for phones PCs,  the press can also play a role here , like pursuade congress to let chinese govt buy micron or rambus. in the end only koreans will get hurt.

Alan Patterson
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Re: Short victory
Alan Patterson   11/23/2017 7:09:56 PM
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Thanks, everyone, for your comments here. I plan to investigate some of your ideas!

ubm112211
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Re: Short victory
ubm112211   11/23/2017 6:42:55 PM
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sounds crazy, but your 2nd part might be wrong. the chinese govt are for job/gdps. they don't care too much about memory price i bet. their steel industry is in deep trouble , need to find a replacement.

Gondalf
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Re: Short victory
Gondalf   11/23/2017 9:55:28 AM
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They acquired a 19 nm class process from UMC, and this is enough to ship tons of silicon in a short time. The patents are not an issue, they have them, sure at an high price. About staff, there are a good number of "without a good salary" engineers around, this was the main mistake of many big corporates. So an aggressive salary politic can assure to China an easy entrance in memory market. It is pretty easy to hire a skilled Japanese engineer, many are waiting a decent salary from a lot, looking at the depriment state of the silicon industry in Japan. $ 70B of investiment is something that can solve many "problems" very quickly. After all China governors goal is not the profit but to lower the memory prices at record setting low levels. The Chinese industry needs of this like oxigen.

ubm112211
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Re: Short victory
ubm112211   11/22/2017 11:01:44 PM
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you might see in small volumes and higher price(lower tech node). and sued right after.

Gondalf
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Short victory
Gondalf   11/22/2017 4:09:02 PM
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As China will begin to produce Drams and NANDs in volume and at a cheap price, this rank will change again drammatically. Honestly actual price of memories is insane and products cost too much to final user, this is a big concern for China OEMs of Pcs and Phones; this slow down the market and the number of devices sold.  China will fix this shortly ( less than two years?? ) with large production FABs on line in few months and ready to ramp fast in full production in few quarters. The big trust of memory makers will have a bad surprise to face,  some of them likely will go in bankruptcy too. For Samsung will be the end of a domination and it will face an incredible competition on prices. This is the calm before the perfect storm, Kim Ki-nam will be costrained to severely bump capacity and lower the prices hugely (apparently this is the desperate strategy).



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