Quoting: We'll also need a good definition of what level of performance is "good enough." Will it be 95%, 99%, or 99.9999%?
(Parenthetically, it helps to use MTTR and MTBF, as opposed to "availability," to determine what is "good enough." Availability = MTBF / (MTBF + MTTR). Given a known MTTR, try different values of availability, and solve for MTBF each time. It gived a much better feel for what matters.)
Why not ask that question today, with respect to human drivers? I mean, what level of performance is deemed adequate, when that teen ager first gets behind the wheel on his own? (Yes, "his own" more than "her own," in terms of risk, I would emphasize.) Or that nit wit from the bar? Or that cell texting addict?
As driver assistance features become more uniquitous, and people have personal experience with them, I predict that the attitude will change. People will begin to say, thak God I had that automatic feature! I just about ruined my whole day, back there at that intersection (or other location of averted tragedy).
I see an awful lot of negative hype heaped on autonomous vehicles, e.g. when they get in an accident. Too bad that the hype doesn't instead focus on the exact problem, and the fix required. For some reason, the root causes and the required fixes are almost an afterthought.
@Don "The autonomous auto folks are still thinking like PC programmers who want immediate results and live with "release now and fix on the update" mentality."
This mentality is pervasive in companies that want to be the first to deliver while keeping development costs low. Unfortunately, bug free software is far more expensive, measured in both time and money, than virtually anyone is willing, or able, to pay. This doesn't bode well for autonomous vehicles. And, because of this, you won't see me beta testing any of them.
If you're a big time VC capitalist and you're about to sink large sums of money into developing fully autonomous vehicles, Don't do it! You'd be making a big mistake. This is not a problem that can be solved with current AI technology.
"Several years ago, when the Microsoft Windows OS was "buggy" and the blue screen of death was a regular occurrence, the not-so-funny joke" is deja vu all over again (to quote Yogi Berra). The latest updates to compensate for Spetre and Meltdown have resulted in some machines having the blue screen of death.
Fundamentally, the programming and expectations for programmers have to change. Aerospace controls are programmed in ADA and take years to release. The autonomous auto folks are still thinking like PC programmers who want immediate results and live with "release now and fix on the update" mentality.